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Wareable’s December 30, 2022 Hotlist got the direction of wearable technology more right than its calendar. It anticipated important products such as Pixel Watch 2 and Fitbit Charge 6, and spotted growing interest in women’s health, smart rings and Wear OS. But several of its boldest calls—mainstream blood-pressure tracking, Garmin LTE and 5G wearables—did not become defining 2023 developments. Apple’s headset and OnePlus’ second watch arrived outside the forecast year.
This retrospective scores all 23 calls against what happened in 2023, separating whether something arrived on time from whether it delivered the predicted outcome. A later product can validate a trend without making the original timing right.
How to read the scorecard
Wareable’s Conor Allison presented the 23 predictions in no particular order, mixing specific product-launch forecasts with broader bets about technology and company strategy. Those are not equally easy to score. A named watch either launched in 2023 or it did not; a claim that a company would find a clearer identity needs a more subjective judgment.
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Here, hit means the specific forecast substantially happened in 2023; partial means only part of it did, or the evidence supports the general idea but not the full claim; late means the direction proved plausible but the forecast year was wrong; and miss means the promised product shift or market change was not substantiated for 2023. “Unresolved” marks a forecast too vague, or its evidence too limited, for a confident verdict. These are editorial assessments, not an official Wareable score.
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For health features, a sensor, a demo or a company announcement is not the same as a shipping consumer feature—and a consumer estimate is not automatically a clinically validated diagnostic tool. Likewise, “mainstream” here means a feature became a meaningful offer from major brands or product lines, not that a prototype appeared at a trade show.
The 23 predictions: 2023 scorecard
| # | Wareable’s prediction | What happened | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apple’s headset would deliver “the magic.” | Apple introduced Vision Pro at WWDC in June 2023, but planned availability for early 2024. The announcement made spatial computing a major Apple story; it did not put a headset in customers’ hands during 2023 or settle whether the product had solved the category’s broader appeal and comfort questions. | Partial; late availability. Directionally right about Apple’s entry, wrong on 2023 consumer release. Whether it delivered “magic” is a judgment, not a measurable launch fact. |
| 2 | Pixel Watch 2 would fix weaknesses in the first model. | Google announced Pixel Watch 2 on October 4, 2023, with a new processor, health and safety features, updated heart-rate tracking and faster charging. Google said it supported Wear OS 4 capabilities. | Hit. Right on timing and on a substantial second-generation improvement, though not every original shortcoming can be said to have disappeared. |
| 3 | Rockley Photonics technology would reach consumer wearables. | The forecast pointed to Rockley’s statement that it was working with six of the ten largest consumer-device companies. That suggested interest, but the available evidence does not establish a Rockley-powered consumer product shipping in 2023. | Miss or unresolved. A supplier’s claimed pipeline is not proof of a shipped device, much less of validated blood-pressure, glucose, hydration or core-temperature measurements. |
| 4 | Fossil Gen 7 would revive the smartwatch line. | The forecast anticipated Gen 7 models in early 2023, but the available 2023 retrospective does not identify a meaningful Gen 7 launch. Generic activity elsewhere in the brand or Wear OS ecosystem would not fulfil this specific call. | Miss. |
| 5 | Withings would return to form. | At CES 2023, Withings announced U-Scan, a connected urine-analysis device designed to measure biomarkers including hydration, ketones, vitamin C and menstrual-cycle-related information. It was a notable health product, but not the anticipated revival of Withings’ watch lineup. | Partial. A company-level health innovation, not a clear watch-business comeback. |
| 6 | Fitbit would establish a clearer identity under Google. | Google deepened Fitbit’s place in its wearable lineup, including Fitbit health capabilities in Pixel Watch 2 and the Charge 6. That demonstrates integration, but not a sharply defined, independent strategic role for Fitbit. | Partial. The integration thesis was stronger than the prediction that Fitbit would settle into a distinct identity. |
| 7 | Blood-pressure technology would go mainstream. | Cuffless blood-pressure sensing featured in CES demonstrations, including Valencell’s work. A demonstration or announcement is not broad deployment, and the forecast’s ECG-like mass-market analogy did not come true in 2023. | Miss. The call confused technical progress with mainstream availability and validation. |
| 8 | Women’s health would receive more attention. | Wearable coverage in 2023 highlighted features and products including Movano Evie’s cycle-focused approach and Samsung’s Cycle Insights and temperature-related tracking. These developments support a wider industry focus, not a claim that every feature was medically validated or available in every market. | Substantial trend hit. More attention and product activity arrived; that is not equivalent to diagnosis or clinical proof. |
| 9 | Garmin would embrace LTE. | The predicted meaningful expansion of cellular connectivity into mainstream Garmin lines such as Vivoactive, Venu or Forerunner did not become a defining 2023 shift. Existing limited safety-oriented LTE products do not count as the forecasted broader move. | Miss. |
| 10 | Apple would bring major new apps and services to Watch Ultra at WWDC 2023. | Apple released watchOS 10 in 2023. That platform update is not, by itself, evidence of the specific major Ultra-focused native-app push the forecast anticipated. | Partial. Platform update, yes; the more specific Ultra app strategy is not established by the available evidence. |
| 11 | Smart rings would become a serious category, with a major entrant such as Samsung. | Smart rings remained an emerging category, but Samsung’s Galaxy Ring did not materialize in 2023, according to Wareable’s retrospective. | Late trend hit; 2023 timing miss. The category call was directionally sound, but the forecasted major-brand launch did not happen that year. |
| 12 | Wear OS 4 would deliver full Fitbit integration. | Wear OS 4 arrived in 2023, and Pixel Watch 2 had deep Fitbit capabilities. That does not establish full Fitbit integration across the entire Wear OS ecosystem. Google also highlighted the Watch Face Format and other platform development. | Partial. Strong on the platform release and Pixel Watch implementation; too broad as a universal platform claim. |
| 13 | Major brands would launch children’s smartwatches. | The prediction drew in part on reports of Google/Fitbit work, but the evidence reviewed does not establish a major-brand children’s smartwatch launch in 2023. | Miss or unresolved. Rumours and internal-project reports are not launches. |
| 14 | Fitbit Charge 6 would arrive. | Google announced Charge 6 in 2023 and positioned it as its latest, most advanced tracker at the time, with Fitbit health features and heart-rate tracking among the headline points. | Clear hit. The product arrived in the predicted year. |
| 15 | Apple Watch Series 9 would be the leading Apple Watch of the year, potentially with major hardware or health advances. | Series 9 launched in 2023 and was Apple’s new flagship generation. Wareable’s awards coverage described it and Ultra 2 as minimal surface updates while noting the S9 chip and Neural Engine. The forecast did not land a major blood-pressure or non-invasive glucose breakthrough. | Launch hit; upgrade thesis overstated. Getting the model year right is separate from getting the scale of the upgrade right. |
| 16 | Whoop would create a fuller everyday experience. | This was a broad software-and-experience prediction without a specific feature or launch test. Its underlying strategic point—that a screenless recovery wearable needs to offer value beyond workouts—remains sensible, but the forecast is difficult to score objectively from the available evidence. | Unresolved / partial. Too vague for a firm hit without a defined measure of “fuller.” |
| 17 | Sensor-rich “actual hearables” would return. | Honor’s temperature-sensing earbuds provided an example of the concept, but one niche product or demonstration is not evidence of a broad return of biometric hearables. | Weak partial; miss at mainstream scale. |
| 18 | Huawei Watch Buds would expand internationally. | The product began as China-focused, and the forecast anticipated a wider rollout. The evidence here supports describing it as gaining international attention and availability, but not confidently claiming a comprehensive worldwide rollout. | Partial. Depends on whether “international” means any markets beyond China or broad availability across regions. |
| 19 | 5G would regain relevance in wearables. | The defining wearable stories of 2023 centred more on spatial computing, health features, battery efficiency and platform ecosystems than on 5G as a consumer selling point. | Miss. The technology had plausible uses, but the forecast did not identify a 2023 use case that became important to buyers. |
| 20 | Mental-health tracking would expand. | Stress tracking and electrodermal-activity (EDA) measurements remained part of the consumer-wearable conversation. That does not support the more ambitious idea of consumer wearables diagnosing depression, bipolar disorder or other mental-health conditions. | Partial trend hit. Wellbeing features are not diagnoses. EDA measures skin conductance associated with sympathetic nervous-system activity; on its own, it cannot identify a mental-health condition. |
| 21 | OnePlus would return with a second smartwatch. | OnePlus Watch 2 arrived after 2023, not within the predicted year. | Late hit; 2023 miss. The broader product thesis may have proved right, but the timing did not. |
| 22 | Huawei Watch 4 and Watch 4 GT would arrive. | Huawei Watch 4-series products were among the significant wearable launches covered in Wareable’s 2023 awards. Availability can vary by region, so a product-generation hit should not be read as a claim of universal access. | Hit. Right on the product-generation call; regional rollout is a separate question. |
| 23 | Qualcomm Snapdragon W5+ would change the smartwatch landscape. | The platform reached devices, and the forecast cited a pipeline of products. But a chip’s efficiency claims and projected designs are not the same as a market-wide transformation; the 2023 wearable landscape did not shift as dramatically as the prediction implied. | Partial technically; overstated market impact. |
The clearest hits: product names and broad trends
The strongest forecasts were the ones with a relatively concrete test. Pixel Watch 2 and Charge 6 arrived in 2023, as did Apple Watch Series 9 and Huawei’s Watch 4 generation. Google’s own Pixel Watch 2 announcement dated the launch and described its health, safety and charging updates; Google also documented the Pixel Watch 2 and Charge 6 heart-rate work in a product explanation.
Some of the more durable calls were about direction rather than an individual device. Women’s health appeared more prominently in product coverage, while Google continued tying Fitbit’s health experience to its own watches and trackers. Wear OS 4 also launched. But those outcomes need narrower wording than the original bets: growing attention is not proof of clinical utility, and Fitbit integration on Pixel hardware is not the same as full integration on every Wear OS watch.
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The distinction matters for Apple Watch Series 9, too. Wareable correctly anticipated the next numbered Apple Watch arriving in 2023. That does not mean it correctly predicted an unusually ambitious upgrade: the retrospective awards coverage described the Series 9 and Ultra 2 as restrained updates, and the forecasted blood-pressure or glucose leap did not arrive as a defining Series 9 feature.
Right direction, wrong year—or not at the promised scale
Apple’s Vision Pro is the clearest timing edge case. Apple unveiled it in 2023, but the release followed in 2024. The forecast deserves credit for anticipating Apple’s entry into spatial computing, not for predicting a 2023 consumer launch or proving that the headset had already delivered a transformative experience. Wareable’s 2023 retrospective treated the announcement as a major moment while noting the category’s unresolved questions.
Smart rings show the same split between trend and timing. Wareable identified an emerging category and expected a large company such as Samsung to challenge Oura. Samsung’s ring did not appear in 2023, so the prediction was not a 2023 product hit even if the broader category thesis remained alive. OnePlus Watch 2 likewise arrived later than forecast. These are late calls, not on-time hits.
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The weakest calls tended to leap from technical possibility or industry chatter to mass-market adoption. Cuffless blood-pressure sensing appeared in CES demonstrations, but the predicted mainstream smartwatch moment did not follow. Rockley’s stated relationships with device companies similarly did not demonstrate that its sensors were inside a shipping wearable. In both cases, the evidentiary steps are different: research, prototype, product announcement, commercial availability, regulatory status, and clinical validation should not be collapsed into one “feature arrived” claim.
The same caution applies to glucose, hydration and core-temperature suggestions. A watch sensor or estimate should not be described as a medical measurement without product-specific evidence. Likewise, skin temperature is not core body temperature, and stress-related EDA is not a mental-health diagnosis. The Hotlist correctly anticipated interest in more health data, but health marketing can move faster than validation or broad availability.
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Other forecasts oversold scale. Garmin did not make a broad LTE shift across the mainstream lines named in the prediction. 5G did not become a key wearable selling point in 2023. A temperature-sensing earbud example did not constitute a hearables revival, and a reported kids-watch project did not count as a launch. Qualcomm’s W5+ platform reached products, but the existence of a chipset and a pipeline is not evidence that the whole smartwatch market changed.
What the forecast got right about predicting wearables
The Hotlist was better at identifying where attention would move than at forecasting exactly which feature would ship, when it would ship, or how widely people would be able to buy it. Its solid calls often involved named product families with predictable annual cycles. Its misses often depended on several uncertain steps: a sensor needed to be reliable, affordable, acceptable to regulators and useful enough for a manufacturer to put into a shipping product.
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It also captured the growing importance of ecosystems. Google’s Fitbit integration, Apple’s software platform and the continuing role of Wear OS were as important to the year’s story as individual hardware. But ecosystem predictions need precise boundaries: a feature on one company’s watch is not automatically a platform-wide capability.
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Finally, forecasts should distinguish launch timing, substantive accuracy and trend accuracy. Vision Pro was a trend and product-direction call that missed its availability date. Pixel Watch 2 was a timely product call with substantial improvement. Blood-pressure tracking was a plausible direction that failed the 2023 mainstream test. This three-part lens avoids both forgiving every late forecast and dismissing a sound trend call merely because it took longer.
Bottom line
Wareable’s 23 predictions were a useful map of the questions wearable makers would pursue, but not a reliable calendar of what consumers would get. The scorecard’s clearest wins were specific 2023 products—Pixel Watch 2, Fitbit Charge 6, Apple Watch Series 9 and Huawei Watch 4—alongside the broader rise of women’s-health features. Its biggest misses were forecasts that treated prototypes, rumours or technical promise as near-term mass adoption. In short: strong on direction, mixed on substance, and notably weaker on timing.
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