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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesGlobal smartwatch shipments fell in 2024, but the size of the drop depends on which research estimate you use: Counterpoint Research later put the year-over-year decline at 7%, while IDC had forecast a 3% fall in September 2024. The dip did not mark a continuous decline: Counterpoint reported full-year growth in 2025, followed by a year-over-year drop in the second quarter of 2026.
These figures describe estimated shipments, not necessarily watches bought by consumers. The research firms offered different explanations for the 2024 downturn, pointing respectively to Apple and slower upgrades in basic smartwatches, and to India’s low-cost segment.
What the 2024 numbers show
| Source and timing | Reported figure | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| IDC, September 2024 forecast | 3% decline forecast for 2024 | An estimate made before the year was complete; IDC said India was a major driver. |
| Counterpoint Research, full-year 2024 estimate | 7% year-over-year decline | A later estimate for completed-year shipments; Counterpoint characterized it as the first annual decline. |
| Counterpoint Research, full-year 2025 | 4% year-over-year growth | A rebound for the year, led by China. |
| Counterpoint Research, Q2 2026 | 4% year-over-year decline | A quarterly fall after a year of growth, not proof of an uninterrupted market decline. |
The figures are not interchangeable: IDC’s 3% was a forecast published in September 2024, while Counterpoint’s 7% was a later full-year estimate. Shipment estimates also are not the same as retail sell-through. IDC forecast 156.5 million smartwatch shipments for 2024 and 175.2 million for 2028; those are forecasts, not confirmed totals.
Why shipments fell in 2024
Counterpoint pointed to Apple and slower upgrades
Counterpoint attributed the 2024 downturn primarily to falling Apple shipments and lower upgrades in the basic smartwatch segment. Wareable reported Counterpoint’s estimate that Apple Watch shipments fell 19% that year, citing competition, weaker upgrade cycles and the absence of an Ultra 3 launch. That 19% is an analyst estimate reported by Wareable, not a figure published by Apple, which does not disclose Apple Watch unit shipments.
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Wareable also noted that a US import ban affected certain Apple Watch models in the first half of 2024. These are reported explanations and context, not proof that any single factor caused the entire market decline.
IDC emphasized India and low-cost products
IDC’s September 2024 forecast identified India as a major driver of the expected decline. IDC said a glut of white-label products—devices sold under different brands despite coming from common suppliers—had followed earlier growth in low-cost smartwatches, and it anticipated industry consolidation.
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IDC also forecast a 5.7% rise in smartwatch average selling prices in 2024. Research manager Jitesh Ubrani said, “As smartwatch pricing continues to rise, vendors are going to face the tough challenge of justifying increases,” He added that changes such as larger screens or different materials have limits, and argued that vendors need additional sensors and tailored health advice. This was expert commentary, not a measured explanation of consumer behavior.
Did the smartwatch market keep shrinking?
No single annual or quarterly result establishes a continuous decline. Counterpoint reported that global smartwatch shipments grew 4% in full-year 2025, led by China. It then reported a 4% year-over-year fall in Q2 2026, calling it the first decline in a year; the same report said Huawei reached a record share.
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- GET HYPERTENSION NOTIFICATIONS—Did you know that Series 11 can spot signs of chronic high blood pressure? By analyzing how your blood vessels respond to beats of the heart, it can notify you of possible hypertension.*
- SAFETY FEATURES—A smartwatch that puts your safety first. Series 11 can detect a hard fall or severe car crash, automatically help connect you with emergency services, and notify your emergency contacts.* Check In can automatically notify a loved one when you’ve arrived at your destination.
- A POWERFUL FITNESS TRACKER—With advanced metrics and motivating features like Pacer, Heart Rate Zones, training load, and Workout Buddy powered by Apple Intelligence from your nearby iPhone*—Series 11 is made to help everyone stay active, from runners and hikers to strength-training enthusiasts.
The timeline is therefore mixed: a 2024 annual decline, a 2025 annual rebound, and a Q2 2026 year-over-year decline. Claims about the market should specify which period they describe.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.FAQ
Why did smartwatch shipments fall in 2024?
Counterpoint Research attributed the downturn mainly to falling Apple shipments and fewer upgrades in basic smartwatches. IDC’s earlier forecast focused on India, where it said a glut of low-cost, white-label products had followed rapid growth. These are the research firms’ explanations, not proof of one universal cause.
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How much did smartwatch shipments fall in 2024?
IDC forecast a 3% decline in September 2024. Counterpoint Research later estimated a 7% year-over-year decline for the completed year. The figures differ because they came from different sources and publication dates.
Is the smartwatch market shrinking?
The evidence cited here does not show a continuous decline. Counterpoint reported 4% full-year shipment growth in 2025 and a 4% year-over-year decline in Q2 2026.
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- A FULL-FEATURED HEALTH TRACKER—Apple Watch Series 11 gives you invaluable insights about your body, right from your wrist. Take an ECG anytime* and get alerts for a high and low heart rate or an irregular rhythm*—so you can stay closer to your heart. You can also view your overnight health tracking metrics with the Vitals app* and be notified of possible sleep apnea.*
- KNOW YOUR SLEEP SCORE—With advanced sleep tracking, Series 11 gives you a daily sleep score. It’s an easy way to help measure and understand the quality of your sleep, so you can make it more restorative.
- GET HYPERTENSION NOTIFICATIONS—Did you know that Series 11 can spot signs of chronic high blood pressure? By analyzing how your blood vessels respond to beats of the heart, it can notify you of possible hypertension.*
- SAFETY FEATURES—A smartwatch that puts your safety first. Series 11 can detect a hard fall or severe car crash, automatically help connect you with emergency services, and notify your emergency contacts.* Check In can automatically notify a loved one when you’ve arrived at your destination.
- A POWERFUL FITNESS TRACKER—With advanced metrics and motivating features like Pacer, Heart Rate Zones, training load, and Workout Buddy powered by Apple Intelligence from your nearby iPhone*—Series 11 is made to help everyone stay active, from runners and hikers to strength-training enthusiasts.
Are shipment estimates the same as smartwatch sales?
No. Shipment estimates track devices sent into the market, while retail sell-through refers to purchases by end customers. The figures in this article are shipment estimates or forecasts, not direct counts of consumer purchases.
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