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Not reliably. Luxury-watch resale prices fell sharply after their 2022 peak, and different brands and models have moved by different amounts. Some measures later improved, but that does not make watches recession-proof or predict what a particular watch will sell for. If you buy one, treat it primarily as something to wear and enjoy—not as a dependable store of value.
What does it mean for a watch to “hold its value”?
There are three different comparisons behind that phrase, and they do not always produce the same answer:
- Current resale value: an estimated secondary-market value or completed sale price. A seller’s asking price is not necessarily what a buyer will pay.
- Value versus retail: whether the current secondary-market estimate is above or below the watch’s retail price. WatchCharts defines value retention by comparing estimated secondary-market value with retail price; that comparison does not show what a specific owner paid or will net from a sale. WatchCharts
- Your proceeds: what remains after considering your purchase price, condition, service needs, and any selling fees. The market indexes discussed below do not calculate an individual owner’s net return.
A watch can retain some resale value while still selling below its original retail price. And a reference that once sold above retail can lose that premium if supply, demand, or buyer sentiment changes.
What happened to luxury-watch prices after 2022?
Prices fell substantially from their 2022 peak, but the measured decline depends on which index and period you use. The figures below come from different publishers and should not be averaged or treated as interchangeable.
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| Measure | Reported result | What it covers |
|---|---|---|
| Chrono24 ChronoPulse Watch Index | Secondary-market prices fell 25% between April 2022 and October 2024; the index was up 0.35% in 2024. | Chrono24 says ChronoPulse is based on transaction data. Figures are from its release published February 5, 2025. Chrono24 |
| WatchCharts Overall Market Index | Down 5.1% in 2024. | WatchCharts’ year-end update, published December 24, 2024; its index tracks 300 watches from the top 10 luxury brands and is weighted by transaction value. WatchCharts |
| WatchCharts Overall Market Index snapshot | 38,549 USD on October 5, 2026; up 8.1% over one year and down 6.3% over five years. | A dated index snapshot, not an appraisal or forecast for an individual watch. WatchCharts |
The contrast between a one-year rise and a five-year decline shows why timeframe matters: a short-term recovery can coexist with a longer-period loss. Neither index establishes that a recession alone caused the price movements. The cited reports describe market changes, not a controlled estimate of recession’s separate effect.
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No. Brand averages differ, and they can conceal substantial variation between individual references. Even two prominent indices reported different results for 2024:
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| Publisher and period | Brand or group | Reported change |
|---|---|---|
| WatchCharts, calendar year 2024 | Overall Market Index | -5.1% |
| WatchCharts, calendar year 2024 | Rolex | -4.9% |
| WatchCharts, calendar year 2024 | Patek Philippe | -6.5% |
| WatchCharts, calendar year 2024 | Audemars Piguet | -7.4% |
| Chrono24 ChronoPulse, calendar year 2024 | Watch Index | +0.35% |
| Chrono24 ChronoPulse, calendar year 2024 | Breitling | +8% |
| Chrono24 ChronoPulse, calendar year 2024 | TAG Heuer | +4.52% |
| Chrono24 ChronoPulse, calendar year 2024 | Cartier | +1.01% |
| Chrono24 ChronoPulse, calendar year 2024 | Patek Philippe | -0.09% |
| Chrono24 ChronoPulse, calendar year 2024 | Audemars Piguet | -1.29% |
| Chrono24 ChronoPulse, calendar year 2024 | IWC | -3.89% |
These are each publisher’s own secondary-market index results, not a direct comparison of identical baskets. Chrono24 describes ChronoPulse as transaction-based; WatchCharts describes its Overall Market Index as a selected basket of 300 watches from the top 10 luxury brands, weighted by transaction value. Chrono24 WatchCharts
Retail comparisons also vary. In its July 2025 report, WatchCharts found Rolex and Patek Philippe above retail on average, while Audemars Piguet had moved below retail and Vacheron Constantin’s average was markedly below retail. These are dated brand averages, not guarantees for every reference. WatchCharts
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Why an index cannot tell you what your watch will sell for
An index tracks a group of watches under a publisher’s method. A specific sale depends on details that an index does not appraise, including the exact reference, condition, originality, documentation, service history, purchase price, and sale channel. The market when you sell matters too.
In particular, a high-demand watch that once traded at a premium can lose that premium. Retail price is not a guaranteed resale floor, and an index’s average cannot establish the net amount you would receive.
How to judge a watch purchase during an uncertain market
- Start with the exact reference. Broad brand performance is not a substitute for model-specific price evidence.
- Separate resale estimates from realized sales. Asking prices can differ from completed transaction prices; Chrono24 says ChronoPulse uses transaction data.
- Compare against the price you will actually pay. A watch trading above retail does not automatically mean every buyer earns a profit.
- Choose a timeframe that fits your decision. A one-year gain does not erase a five-year decline, as the WatchCharts snapshot illustrates.
- Allow for the costs and condition of your own watch. Selling fees and service needs affect proceeds, but the cited indexes do not calculate an owner’s net return.
In WatchCharts’ mid-year 2025 analysis, 29 of 35 tracked Swiss brands declined in the second quarter. That is a dated market observation, not a forecast of what will happen in the next downturn. WatchCharts
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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