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Rolex remained the clear leader in Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult’s 2024 ranking of the top Swiss watch brands, with estimated turnover of CHF 10.583 billion and approximately 32.1% of estimated retail value share. Cartier was a distant second at about 8%, followed by Omega at roughly 7%. By estimated value, Rolex was more than four times the size of Omega and roughly four times the size of Cartier.
The larger story, however, was market polarization. Estimated turnover for the top 50 brands fell about 2.4%, while reported unit volume dropped almost 17%. A small group of privately owned ultra-luxury brands gained share as many group-owned and mid-market names came under pressure. These are industry estimates—not audited brand accounts—and the report covers calendar year 2024. A newer report covering 2025 was published in February 2026.
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What Morgan Stanley’s 2024 watch-brand ranking says
Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult’s eighth annual Swiss watch-industry report presents a market that became smaller by volume, slightly smaller by estimated turnover, and more concentrated at the top in 2024.
Rolex was the unmistakable headline. The report estimated:
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- CHF 10.583 billion in Rolex turnover;
- approximately 1.176 million watches in reported or estimated unit volume, depending on the terminology used in public summaries; and
- approximately 32.1% of estimated retail market share by brand.
Including Tudor, the estimated Rolex group share was approximately 33.2%. That distinction is important: 33.2% is not Rolex brand share alone.
Cartier Watches ranked second at approximately 8% of estimated retail value share, while Omega ranked third at about 7%. The ranking therefore understates Rolex’s lead if it is read only as a No. 1 versus No. 2 result. Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult estimated Rolex’s turnover at about 4.4 times Omega’s and more than three times Cartier’s, using the figures reported in public coverage.
Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult’s 2024 report coverage provides the broad market context, while The Hour Markers’ summary reports the Rolex estimates and brand-share figures.
First, understand what the ranking does—and does not—measure
This is not a worldwide ranking of every watch company. It is an estimate of the leading brands associated with the Swiss watch industry. The dataset can include brands owned by Swiss groups even when the individual brand is not straightforwardly Swiss by nationality. That is why German brands such as A. Lange & Söhne and Glashütte Original appear in public versions of the ranking.
It should not be treated as an automatic comparison with Seiko, Citizen, Casio, Apple, Garmin, or other major non-Swiss brands. Nor is it a ranking of:
- the brands selling the most watches by unit volume;
- the most profitable watchmakers;
- the most valuable brands in brand-equity studies;
- the largest watch companies by total corporate revenue;
- collector desirability; or
- secondary-market performance.
The report also uses several different concepts that are easy to blur together. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry’s export statistics, estimated brand turnover, estimated retail value, and market share are not interchangeable.
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Four figures that are often confused
- FHS exports: the customs value of goods leaving Switzerland. This is not the same as what consumers ultimately pay.
- Brand turnover: Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult’s estimated sales attributed to a brand, based on available disclosures and industry assumptions.
- Retail value: an estimate of consumer-facing value that can depend on channel and pricing assumptions.
- Market share: generally value share in this report, not unit share.
The estimated top 20 brands for 2024
The following table reproduces the top 20 as reported in public transcriptions of the Morgan Stanley/LuxeConsult chart. All turnover figures are estimates in Swiss francs, not audited brand-reported revenue. Several entries—especially toward the middle of the table—vary slightly between public summaries.
| Rank | Brand | Estimated 2024 turnover | Reported direction versus 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rolex | CHF 10,583 million | Up |
| 2 | Cartier Watches | CHF 3,183 million | Up |
| 3 | Omega | CHF 2,390 million | Down |
| 4 | Audemars Piguet | CHF 2,380 million | Up |
| 5 | Patek Philippe | CHF 2,300 million | Down or approximately flat |
| 6 | Richard Mille | CHF 1,540 million | Approximately flat |
| 7 | Longines | About CHF 1,120 million | Conflicting public transcriptions |
| 8 | Vacheron Constantin | About CHF 1,050 million | Conflicting public transcriptions |
| 9 | Breitling | About CHF 865 million | Slightly down |
| 10 | Tissot | About CHF 740 million | Down |
| 11 | TAG Heuer | About CHF 742 million | Up |
| 12 | Swatch | About CHF 740 million | Direction disputed |
| 13 | Hermès Watches | About CHF 690 million | Up or disputed |
| 14 | IWC | About CHF 672 million | Down |
| 15 | Jaeger-LeCoultre | About CHF 641 million | Approximately flat or down |
| 16 | Hublot | About CHF 495 million | Down sharply |
| 17 | Bulgari | About CHF 493 million | Up |
| 18 | Officine Panerai | About CHF 420 million | Approximately flat |
| 19 | Chopard | About CHF 380 million | Down |
| 20 | Chanel Watches | About CHF 366 million | Down |
Source note: the table is based on the public transcriptions collected by Chronotempus and The Hour Markers. Public copies are not a substitute for the original licensed chart, and close estimates should not be interpreted as precise rank changes.
Why the public top-50 list needs a warning label
Publicly available summaries of ranks 21 through 50 are less reliable than the leading positions. One widely circulated transcription places the following brands in sequence: Tudor, Blancpain, Franck Muller, Van Cleef & Arpels Watches, A. Lange & Söhne, Piaget, Montblanc, Rado, Breguet, Hamilton, Louis Vuitton Watches, Jacob & Co., Zenith, Gucci Watches, Harry Winston, F.P. Journe, H. Moser & Cie., Certina, Girard-Perregaux, Ulysse Nardin, Baume & Mercier, Raymond Weil, Roger Dubuis, Oris, Frédérique Constant, Dior Watches, an unclear entry at rank 47, Glashütte Original, Parmigiani Fleurier, and MB&F.
That sequence should not be published as a definitive lower-half ranking. The public transcription appears to list Harry Winston twice, at ranks 35 and 47, strongly suggesting an OCR, translation, or table-copying error. The exact rank 47 entry cannot be safely identified from the available public material. The responsible interpretation is to use the verified or repeatedly corroborated top 20, and describe the lower positions as approximate unless the original chart is available with permission.
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Rolex widened its lead without increasing estimated volume
The most revealing Rolex result was the combination of rising estimated turnover and falling estimated unit volume:
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| Rolex measure | 2023 estimate | 2024 estimate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover | CHF 10.100 billion | CHF 10.583 billion | About +4.8% |
| Reported units | About 1.240 million | About 1.176 million | About −5.2% |
| Estimated brand retail share | About 30% | About 32.1% | Increased |
A calculation from those reported figures produces estimated turnover per reported unit of approximately CHF 8,145 in 2023 and CHF 8,999 in 2024—an increase of about 10.5%. That is an arithmetic illustration, not proof that every Rolex model rose in price by 10.5%. It can reflect a combination of price changes, model mix, allocation, distribution, and the assumptions used to estimate both turnover and units.
Likewise, the figures do not prove that Rolex intentionally restricted production in every market or that demand remained perfectly intact. They show that, according to the estimates, Rolex generated more value with fewer reported units. A plausible interpretation is that price positioning, scarcity, product mix, and unusually strong brand power helped Rolex protect value better than brands more exposed to aspirational luxury demand.
Rolex’s estimated brand share of 32.1% should also be kept separate from the estimated 33.2% share for the Rolex group, which includes Tudor. Headlines that describe the entire 33.2% as Rolex alone are overstating the brand figure.
The Big Four controlled almost half the market by value
The report identified four privately owned brands as the industry’s Big Four:
- Rolex
- Patek Philippe
- Audemars Piguet
- Richard Mille
Together, they were estimated to control approximately 47% of the market by value in 2024, up from about 44% in 2023 and more than ten percentage points above the pre-pandemic comparison cited in the report.
This ownership pattern is one of the report’s most important structural findings. The biggest share gainers were privately held brands, while major listed groups generally lost share. That does not prove private ownership is inherently better, nor does it mean every private brand outperformed every listed brand. It does indicate that the strongest concentration of value was found among brands able to sustain high prices, controlled distribution, scarcity, and exceptional demand at the top end.
Estimated group-level shares
The report’s group-level estimates make the concentration easier to see:
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|---|---|
| Rolex group | 33.2% |
| Swatch Group | 18.3% |
| Richemont | 17.8% |
| Patek Philippe | 6.5% |
| LVMH watch division | 5.7% |
| Audemars Piguet | 5.2% |
| Richard Mille | 3.2% |
| Breitling | 2.4% |
| Others | 7.6% |
The figures sum to approximately 100% after rounding. One striking comparison is that Patek Philippe’s estimated 6.5% share was larger than the estimated share of LVMH’s entire watch division, at 5.7%.
The group figures come from the Morgan Stanley Research appendix reproduced by Quill & Pad. As with the brand figures, these are estimates of retail value share, not unit share or audited consolidated revenue.
Winners and losers in the 2024 estimates
The clearest winners
The highest-confidence winners were Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, and Richard Mille. These brands sit at the strongest end of the value spectrum and were repeatedly identified as gaining or defending share.
Public summaries also identify TAG Heuer, Bulgari, F.P. Journe, H. Moser & Cie., MB&F, Frédérique Constant, and Van Cleef & Arpels Watches among the brands that performed positively under at least one measure. The precise growth list is not entirely consistent. Morgan Stanley/LuxeConsult coverage is commonly summarized as saying that 11 of the top 50 brands grew, while some public tables appear to show 12 positive names and another summary counts 14. The difference may result from rounded or flat results being classified differently, or from transcription errors.
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The defensible wording is that only a small minority of the top 50 grew; headline coverage commonly reports 11 of 50. It is not safe to claim that exactly 11 brands grew without access to the original chart and its underlying definitions.
The largest reported declines
Tudor was among the most discussed losers. Public estimates put its turnover at approximately CHF 545 million in 2023 and CHF 360 million in 2024, implying a decline of about 34%. Reported units fell from approximately 255,000 to 160,000, which calculates to about 37%, not 44%.
One WatchPro report used a 23% decline in its headline, illustrating that public coverage may be referring to different measures or estimates. The safest approach is to state the underlying figures and calculate the percentage rather than repeat an unsupported percentage.
Hublot was reported down sharply, with one public transcription indicating a decline of approximately 26%. Breguet was estimated to have fallen from roughly CHF 210 million to CHF 165 million, or approximately 21%. IWC, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Panerai, and several Swatch Group brands were also reported as being under pressure.
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Longines deserves special caution because public sources conflict. Some tables show a slight turnover increase to about CHF 1.12 billion, despite a substantial fall in units. Another industry summary identifies Longines among brands suffering a decline of 20% or more.
Later reporting says Longines left the billion-franc club in the 2025 report, while Vacheron Constantin had left it in 2024. That would suggest Longines was still above CHF 1 billion in 2024, but it does not resolve the precise year-over-year change. The safe conclusion is that Longines experienced a major unit-volume decline and was exposed to the China slowdown; its exact 2024 turnover direction should not be stated as settled without the original report table.
The top 50 contracted, but value held up better than volume
The report estimated that combined turnover for the top 50 brands declined from CHF 36.127 billion in 2023 to CHF 35.258 billion in 2024:
- Estimated turnover: down approximately 2.4%.
- Estimated or reported unit volume: down from about 16 million to 13.3 million watches, or approximately 16.9%.
Dividing the estimated turnover by the reported units produces an average of approximately CHF 2,258 per unit in 2023 and CHF 2,651 in 2024—an increase of about 17.4%. This is not an official industry-wide average retail price. It is simply an arithmetic illustration of how much more value was concentrated in each reported unit.
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Premiumization was concentrated in very expensive watches
According to public summaries of the report, watches priced above CHF 50,000 represented approximately:
- 33.5% of the total value of Swiss watch exports;
- approximately 84% of industry growth in 2024; and
- only about 1.2% of export volume.
The 84% figure refers to the share of growth, not 84% of total industry revenue. The contrast with the 1.2% volume share is the essential point: a very small number of highly expensive watches generated a disproportionate amount of the sector’s value growth.
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That helps explain why Rolex could gain value share while its estimated unit volume declined, and why Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille remained so influential in the overall market. It also explains why unit rankings can give a very different picture from value rankings.
China weakened while the Americas and Japan provided support
The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry’s official 2024 release reported:
- total Swiss watchmaking exports of approximately CHF 26.0 billion, down 2.8% from 2023;
- watch exports specifically of approximately CHF 24.8 billion;
- exported watch volume down 9.4% to approximately 15.3 million watches;
- China down 25.8%;
- Hong Kong down 18.7%;
- the United States up 5.0%; and
- Japan up 7.8%, helped in part by tourism.
North and South America together grew approximately 5.4%. This regional pattern supports the report’s emphasis on China and aspirational-luxury exposure, but it should not be used to claim that China alone caused any individual brand’s result. Brand mix, distribution, inventory, pricing, and local retail conditions also matter.
FHS export figures are customs statistics, not end-consumer sales. The Federation’s methodology explanation is important here: exported value cannot be placed directly beside estimated retail turnover as though both measured the same transaction.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How reliable are the Morgan Stanley/LuxeConsult estimates?
The report is valuable precisely because the Swiss watch industry is opaque. But its usefulness does not make its brand-level numbers audited facts.
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What goes into the estimates
Public descriptions indicate that the analysis combines information such as:
- financial reports from listed groups;
- Swiss export data;
- public comments from company executives;
- retail networks and points of sale;
- industry and supplier information; and
- LuxeConsult’s sector knowledge and estimates for private brands.
Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille do not publish brand-specific financial information in the same way listed conglomerates do. Even listed groups often report at group or division level rather than providing a complete, comparable income statement for every brand. Estimation is therefore unavoidable if an analyst wants to compare the brands in one table.
The methodology and its limitations are discussed in coverage from Fratello Watches and WatchPro.
What readers should not treat as exact
Always attribute the following to Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult or to public transcriptions of their report:
- Rolex production or unit volume;
- brand-by-brand revenue for Swatch Group, Richemont, and LVMH brands;
- implied average selling prices;
- market shares stated to decimal precision;
- the exact number of watches made or sold by privately held brands; and
- one-place ranking changes when the underlying estimates are close.
A sound formulation is Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult estimate, not Rolex sold exactly 1,176,000 watches. The report’s broad structural conclusions are more dependable than any individual number that depends on several layers of estimation.
Swatch Group’s later criticism
The estimates have also faced direct industry criticism. In 2026, Swatch Group publicly challenged the methodology and alleged that estimates for some of its brands differed materially from its internal figures, with claimed discrepancies ranging from approximately −53% to +47% for certain brands. Those objections concern the 2025 report rather than proving that every 2024 figure is wrong, but they reinforce the central caveat: this is an analytical model, not audited brand reporting.
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Swatch Group’s open letter and JCK’s coverage of the dispute provide the company’s criticism. The appropriate conclusion is balanced: Morgan Stanley/LuxeConsult offers one of the most useful public attempts to map an opaque industry, but readers should place more confidence in the direction of the market than in a precise decimal share or a one-place ranking.
What happened next?
The 2024 report is now historical, not the latest Morgan Stanley watch-market edition. It covered calendar year 2024 and was published in February 2025. Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult’s next report, covering 2025, was published in February 2026.
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Bottom line: Rolex was first, but concentration was the real story
Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult’s 2024 estimates showed a Swiss watch market that was contracting in volume and becoming increasingly dependent on its most expensive and powerful brands. Rolex did not simply retain the No. 1 position: it increased its estimated value share to about 32.1% while its estimated unit volume fell.
The privately owned Big Four—Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille—were estimated to control 47% of market value. Watches priced above CHF 50,000 represented only a small fraction of volume but a huge share of growth. Meanwhile, China and Hong Kong weakened sharply, putting pressure on brands with greater exposure to aspirational luxury and Chinese retail demand.
The defensible conclusion is therefore structural rather than falsely precise: the 2024 Swiss watch market became more concentrated, more premium, and more polarized, with Rolex operating far ahead of every individual rival. The exact brand figures remain estimates and should be read accordingly.
Frequently Asked Questions
Was Rolex the largest watch brand in the world in 2024?
The Morgan Stanley/LuxeConsult ranking did not measure every watch company worldwide. It estimated the leading brands associated with the Swiss watch industry. Within that scope, Rolex was by far the largest by estimated value. The ranking does not directly compare Rolex with Seiko, Citizen, Casio, Apple, Garmin, or every other global watch company.
Did Rolex sell exactly 1.176 million watches in 2024?
No. Approximately 1.176 million is an industry estimate, and public summaries vary in whether the figure is described as watches sold or produced. It should not be presented as an audited number disclosed by Rolex.
Why is Rolex’s share listed as both 32.1% and 33.2%?
The approximately 32.1% figure refers to the Rolex brand. The approximately 33.2% figure refers to the Rolex group and includes Tudor.
Is the Morgan Stanley 2024 ranking the latest report?
No. The report covers 2024 and was published in February 2025. A subsequent report covering 2025 was published in February 2026.
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It is a valuable estimate of an opaque industry, but it is not audited brand reporting. Publicly available transcriptions contain inconsistencies, especially below the top 20. Broad conclusions such as Rolex’s dominance and the market’s polarization are more reliable than precise brand revenue, unit, or one-place ranking comparisons.
The Bottom Line
Bottom line: Rolex remained the undisputed value leader in the 2024 Morgan Stanley/LuxeConsult estimates, but the report’s most important finding was the growing concentration of the Swiss watch market. A few privately owned, high-end brands captured an outsized share of value while overall volume and many mid-market brands declined. Treat the figures as informed estimates—not audited accounts.
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