Rolex grew substantially during the pandemic-era recovery, but the available figures do not verify the claim that it represents 25% of the Swiss watch industry. Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult estimated Rolex’s 2023 sales at CHF 10.1 billion, up 11% from 2022, and its retail-market share at just over 30%. Those are analyst estimates—not figures disclosed by Rolex—and the source does not establish a 25% share for 2023.
What the 25% claim does—and does not—tell us
The title’s 25% figure cannot be treated as a verified current statistic on the evidence available. Its original source, reference year, geography and denominator are not established. “A quarter of the Swiss watch industry” could refer to a specific measure or market segment, but without that definition it is not possible to confirm what the percentage means or reproduce its calculation.
The best-supported recent brand-level estimate is different: Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult put Rolex’s 2023 retail-market share at just over 30%, as reported by SWI swissinfo.ch. That is an estimate of retail share, not a statement that Rolex made up 30% of Swiss watch exports or of every possible measure of the industry.
What analysts estimated for Rolex in 2023
Rolex does not publish brand-level annual sales. The following figures are Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult estimates reported by Bloomberg and SWI swissinfo.ch in 2024, rather than company disclosures:
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| Measure | 2023 estimate | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | CHF 10.1 billion | Analyst estimate; 11% higher than estimated 2022 sales |
| Production | 1.24 million timepieces | Analyst estimate of watches produced |
| Retail-market share | Just over 30% | Analyst estimate reported by SWI swissinfo.ch |
SWI swissinfo.ch reported that Rolex declined to comment on the estimates. The analysts’ assessment of the brand’s position was emphatic: Morgan Stanley’s Edouard Aubin and LuxeConsult’s Oliver Müller wrote, “No other luxury brand can claim such a dominant position in its respective sector.” That is the analysts’ judgment, not a statement from Rolex.
Why Rolex’s estimated retail share cannot be calculated from Swiss exports
Swiss watch export statistics and an analyst estimate of a brand’s retail sales measure different things. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH compiles export values based on prices declared by exporting firms. It explicitly says its statistics reflect exports, not sales to end consumers, and cannot establish the performance of an individual company or group. The FH explains this distinction in its watch industry statistics methodology.
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As a result, dividing Rolex’s estimated CHF 10.1 billion in 2023 sales by the FH’s total Swiss watch-export value would not produce a sound market-share figure. The numerator is an analyst estimate of brand sales; the denominator is an official export measure with a different basis. A meaningful percentage requires a consistent year, market, sales level and calculation method.
How the broader Swiss watch industry changed
On the FH’s export measure, the industry expanded in 2023 and contracted in 2024. These totals provide context for the period, but they do not establish Rolex’s own year-by-year performance.
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| Year | Swiss watch exports | Year-over-year change | Source and scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | CHF 26.7 billion | Up 7.6% | FH total export value, reported in its 2023 results |
| 2024 | CHF 26.0 billion total exports; CHF 24.8 billion for watches | Total exports down 2.8% | FH figures in its 2024 results |
The FH’s 2023 report also said exports to the United States had grown by an average of 27.1% in 2021 and 2022. That is export-market context, not a Rolex growth rate. In its 2024 report, the FH attributed the decline in exports particularly to weak demand in China and Hong Kong and noted marked differences between companies. Neither report supports inferring Rolex’s individual 2024 results from the industry totals.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Did Rolex grow during the pandemic?
The analyst figures support a clear, narrower conclusion: Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult estimated that Rolex sales rose 11% in 2023 compared with 2022, during the pandemic-era recovery. The FH’s export data likewise show strong Swiss-industry growth in 2023, following pandemic disruption. But the available sources do not isolate the pandemic as the cause of Rolex’s growth, show that the broader export growth rate applied to Rolex, or establish the brand’s performance for every year of the pandemic.
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The careful takeaway is that Rolex was estimated to have grown strongly in 2023 and to hold a retail share of just over 30%. That does not substantiate a 25% share of the Swiss watch industry without a defined source, year and denominator.
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