Jean-Philippe Bertschy of Vontobel Equity Research expects the watch industry’s 2026 recovery to be uneven: a small group of leading brands may return to more normal growth, while many others continue to face pressure. In his interview with MONOCHROME, published on 18 February 2026, he calls this “selective normalisation” and links the leaders’ resilience to brand strength, integrated retail and engaged customers.
What “selective normalisation” means
Bertschy’s phrase describes a recovery concentrated among structural leaders, not a broad-based return to growth across watchmaking. In his forecast, the strongest brands are better positioned to rebuild growth and margins; many companies elsewhere in the market still face volume pressure, reduced visibility and a more demanding promotional environment.
The interview discusses Vontobel Equity Research’s Luxury Goods 2026 report and reproduces Bertschy’s answers with permission. The figures and outlook below are his estimates and analysis as presented in that interview; the underlying Vontobel report and independent industry data are not assessed here.
Why the market is concentrating
Bertschy describes a “fewer watches, but more expensive ones” dynamic. In his view, this leaves entry-level and mid-range brands, as well as suppliers reliant on volume, more exposed, while the strongest brands may be better able to defend pricing power.
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He estimates that around ten leading brands account for approximately 70% of watch volumes above CHF 500 and close to 80% of value. These are estimates stated in the interview, not independently audited market-share figures.
For Bertschy, the issue is not simply how many brands exist, but the widening gap between a concentrated group of major players and a long tail of more fragile labels. He sees room for differentiated newcomers as focused niche maisons with limited volumes and distribution, rather than as generalists seeking to compete across the market.
How Bertschy expects regions to perform
The regional outlook below reflects Bertschy’s forecasts in the 18 February 2026 interview, not confirmed results for the year.
| Region | Expected direction | Demand mix or exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Mainland China | Stabilisation | He expects demand to rely more on high-end and engaged clients than occasional buyers, and does not forecast a broad-based double-digit rebound. |
| United States | Moderate growth | After stronger years, he expects greater variation between brands and more sensitivity to financial wealth and equity markets. |
| Europe | Broadly sluggish | Tourist centres and affluent local buyers may be more resilient than the wider market. |
| Middle East | Solid high-end profile | Bertschy points to a very high-end clientele and continued appetite for iconic pieces. |
| India | Longer-term potential | He sees opportunity from a small base, but says regulatory and distribution constraints limit its ability to replace China in the short term. |
What the outlook could mean for watch groups
Bertschy sees portfolio simplification as one possible response to concentration in the watch market. Divestments, management buyouts or dormancy could allow groups to redirect capital toward stronger watch brands or branded jewellery. These are strategic possibilities in his analysis, not announcements of planned disposals.
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He considers Zenith and Jaeger-LeCoultre strategically valuable, saying he doubts LVMH would sell Zenith and views Jaeger-LeCoultre as a strategic Richemont asset. More broadly, he thinks LVMH is likelier to strengthen its high-end position than to sell its watchmaking assets. His mention of Patek Philippe as a possible target reflects industry talk and his interpretation—not evidence of an offer, negotiation or planned acquisition.
Why Rolex Certified Pre-Owned matters
Bertschy estimates Rolex Certified Pre-Owned revenue at around CHF 500 million in 2025. He characterises that as modest at group level and expects further growth from a high base as the programme’s network and eligible inventory expand, eventually moving toward a more normal pace.
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In his view, the programme also gives Rolex a way to capture part of the secondary market, support price discovery and strengthen confidence in authenticity. The revenue estimate and growth outlook are Bertschy’s, rather than independently verified figures or outcomes.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the interview does—and does not—establish
The interview offers a named analyst’s framework for thinking about 2026: likely resilience among a small group of leaders, with weaker conditions and greater brand-level differences elsewhere. It does not establish that the forecast will prove accurate, quantify the outlook with independently verified market data, or recommend a particular watch. Readers should treat the market-share and CPO figures as estimates attributed to Bertschy, and the regional and corporate-strategy comments as forecasts or interpretations.
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